History of climate modeling

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The history of climate modeling dates back to the late 19th and early 20th centuries (Edwards, P.N. 2011), with some of the earliest models being developed in the 1870s (Uppenbrink, J. 1996). The main focus of these models was the study of atmospheric processes and the calculation of future climate changes (Arrhenius, S. 1896). With the advent of advanced computing technology (Ruttimann, J. 2006) in the mid-20th century, climate models improved significantly and could be used to predict the effects of various changes in the Earth's climate. Today, climate models are used to simulate both past (Otto-Bliesner, et.al. 2006) and future (Fick, S.E. and R.J. Hijmans, 2017) climate scenarios, as well as to understand the effects of global warming. The role of climate models in understanding climate change is becoming increasingly important.

Climate models are mathematical representations of Earth’s climate system, used to simulate and predict the evolution of climate over time. They are used to study the behavior of the climate system and its components, as well as to improve predictions of future climate states. One of the most common types of climate model is the General Circulation Model (GCM), originally created by scientists (Manabe, S. and Bryan, K. 1969) at the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL), which simulates the global circulation of the atmosphere, ocean, land surface, and sea ice. GCMs are typically used to simulate medium- to long-term changes in climate due to natural or human-caused forcing (McGuffie, K. and Henderson-Sellers, A. 2005). An extension of GCMs is Earth System Models (ESMs) which typically include additional components representing the interaction of the atmosphere, ocean, land surface, and sea-ice with the biosphere and cryosphere (Scholze, M., et.al. 2012). These models allow for a more complete representation of the Earth system, including feedback between components (Sokolov, A. et.al. 2018). ESMs are used for climate projections, including the assessment of future climate change and its impacts on various sectors of society (Heavens, N.G. et.al.2013). Another subset of GCMs and ESMs is Regional Climate Models (RCMs) which are used to simulate the climate of a smaller region. They can simulate the effects of small-scale features, such as mountains and coastlines, more realistically than global models (Wang, Y. et.al. 2004). RCMs are used to simulate the effects of climate change on a local level, such as changes to precipitation and temperature, as well as on regional climate extremes (Tapiador, F.J. et.al. 2020).

To understand the complexity of the climate system, all components of the climate system including atmosphere, oceans, land surface, and ice are modeled (Gettelman, A. and Rood, R.B., 2016, pp 13-22). The atmosphere is a complex system of gasses, radiation, and air particles, driven by energy from the sun. Atmospheric processes include convection, advection, radiation, and condensation, all of which are important in determining weather patterns (Gettelman, A. and Rood, R.B., 2016, pp 71-76). The oceans are a key component of the global climate system, covering more than 70% of the Earth's surface. Oceanic processes such as upwelling and downwelling, evaporation, and convection all play an important role in regulating climate. The oceans store and transport heat energy, modulating global temperatures and driving weather patterns (Gettelman, A. and Rood, R.B., 2016, pp 87-88). The land surface includes the terrestrial biosphere and the topography of the land. Terrestrial processes such as photosynthesis, respiration, and evaporation are important in regulating climate variability  (Gettelman, A. and Rood, R.B., 2016, pp 109-111). Land cover changes, such as urbanization and deforestation, can impact weather patterns and climate. Ice within the climate system acts as an important regulator, acting to reflect incoming solar radiation back into space. Ice sheets, glaciers, and sea ice are responsible for the formation of the Earth's albedo, which is an important factor in determining the global energy balance (Gettelman, A. and Rood, R.B., 2016, pp 101). Changes in ice cover can have profound effects on the climate system.

Climate models are a vital tool for understanding and predicting the Earth's climate. They are computer simulations that simulate the dynamics of the atmosphere and its interactions with the ocean, land surface, and other components of the climate system (Tehrani, M.J., et.al. 2022). The processes that are simulated in a climate model include radiation, precipitation, and circulation. 

Radiation, the transfer of energy from the Sun to the Earth, is the primary source of energy for the Earth's climate and is responsible for determining the temperature of the atmosphere. The radiation that is transferred to the Earth's surface and atmosphere is called shortwave radiation (Yang, Q. et.al 2020), and it is mainly composed of visible light and infrared radiation. Precipitation, the process by which water is transferred from the atmosphere to the land and ocean surface, is essential to many ecosystems and processes such as erosion, sedimentation, and the hydrological cycle (Tapiador, F.J. et.al. 2017). Circulation, the transfer of heat and moisture from the ocean and atmosphere to higher latitudes, is responsible for the formation of the Earth's major climate zones and the transport of heat and moisture around the planet. It is also responsible for the development of storm systems and the formation of large-scale climate features such as El Niño and La Niña (Behera, S.K. et.al. 2021).

One of the main uses of climate models is to project future climate change and the increase in rainfall erosivity wil drive high erosion rates (Panagos, P., et.al. 2022). By assessing current and past conditions, such as greenhouse gas concentrations, temperatures, and ocean currents, climate models predict how the climate may change over time. This can help inform policy decisions regarding climate change mitigation and adaptation (Marzi, S. et.al. 2021; Lindbergh, S. et.al. 2022; Xing, Q. et.al. 2022). Another application of climate models is to understand past climate change. By running simulations using past data, such as atmospheric concentrations and temperatures, scientists can better understand how climate has changed over time (Li, Y. et.al. 2018; Razjigaeva, N.G. et.al. 2020). This information can then be used to better understand the current climate, as well as inform climate change mitigation strategies. 

Another example is the study of past climate events such as droughts (Gupta, A. S. et.al. 2011), heatwaves (Trancoso, R. et.al. 2020), and floods (Degeai, J.P. et.al. 2022). By analyzing past climate data, scientists can understand the causes of these events and how they are related to changes in atmospheric and oceanic circulation patterns. This information can be used to develop early warning systems for future climate events, as well as to inform policy decisions related to disaster risk management (Coughlan de Perez, E. et.al. 2022; Li, D. et.al. 2021). Climate models can also be used to reconstruct past climate conditions by using various data sources such as ice cores, tree rings, and sediment cores. This allows scientists to understand the past climate conditions, as well as to study the impact of past climate change on the environment, such as on vegetation (Li, P. et.al. 2021), animals (Gulland, F.M. et.al. 2022), and human societies (Rivera-Collazo, 2022).

In summary, climate models provide a powerful tool for understanding past and future climate changes. Their ability to simulate the Earth's climate system and its various components allows scientists to assess the impact of human activities and natural phenomena on the climate. The main uses of climate models include projecting future climate change and understanding past climate change. However, there are several major challenges and limitations associated with climate modeling (CCSP, 2008; Oluwagbemi, O.O. et.al. 2022), including the complexity of the Earth's climate system, the need for high-performance computing, the dependence on accurate data, and the difficulty of interpreting results. Despite these challenges, climate models are essential in informing policy decisions regarding climate change mitigation and adaptation (IPCC, 2007). The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) report, which utilizes numerous climate simulations (Flato, G.J. et.al. 2013) is one of the most influential and widely recognized climate models. It serves as a useful tool for assessing the effectiveness of policies and strategies to reduce the impacts of climate change, and for making informed decisions about proposed approaches.

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12. https://www.gfdl.noaa.gov/climate-modeling/